Have you noticed that this TV anime season has brought us a slew of sequels: THOSE WHO HUNT ELVES II, VAMPIRE PRINCESS MIYU, DR. SLUMP, and WATARU? Gee, and didn't Simba look a lot like Kimba/Leo? Or did you ever get tired of all of those ads for GHOST IN THE SHELL? Did you see how MEMORIES was "presented" by Otomo Katsuhiro, and yet he only directed one third of the project (and not even the most entertaining third...)?

Why, why, why, and why?

The answer to all four questions is the same. Someone producing the project decided to load the dice, so to speak, in order to reduce the overall risk for the success of the project. Why would you need to load the dice? The fact is that resources (money, talent, time, etc.) are limited, and this fact affects every industry, whether it is banking, dog washing, animation, or cough syrup manufacturing (While I have placed this column generally into the Animation reference frame, I assure you that these concepts can apply to just about every industry). Since the future of any company depends upon the success and viability of its products, and there are limited resources available to make each product, each company must stake its future on a guess. The company must gamble on what product will prove to be successful and will provide the sustaining income necessary to remain in business. The future remains unknown in each and every case, and as any gambler, businessman, or producer can tell you, the secret to success is knowing how to play the odds. Sometimes, the odds can be adjusted, and just as in gambling, the odds often are accompanied by comparable rewards.
Each time a production company is in a position to produce a property, it will (or at least should) analyze every aspect of a project (story, art, music, etc.) and try to minimize the overall risk of the project. As I have discussed in another column, no one ever sets out to make crap - it just happens, and accounting for this possibility is part of the procedure. If you think that I may be emphasizing the business decision too much, consider this: 100% of the animation studios are commercial enterprises, with paid employees and bills. I think you will find that those animation studios that do not make their initial decisions based upon dollars and cents will not remain in business for very long. Not that I am an advocate for the MBA approach either; too much attention to the money part will weaken the ability of the company to produce a good product, and that is what animation is really about. In order to stay in business, a studio will need to find a balance between the financial risks and the artistic risks to produce projects that will be good products with the resources that studio has at its disposal.
So let us now explore the risks and rewards of different types of projects so that we can see how the balance beam works. For the purpose of this column, I will generalize all productions into four categories: 100% Original, Adaptation, Sequel, and Derivative. A 100% Original title is any animated project that has no relation to any other project in any other media such as comics, radio, role playing, or video games. An adaptation is the animated version of a comic book, video game, etc., where a product from some other industry is adapted into an animated project. A sequel is simply any animated project based upon a previously animated project. Finally, a Derivative project is a sequel or an adaptation that is changed just enough to be able to claim legally, if not morally or artistically, that the project is 100% Original.
Risk can be evaluated in several ways, but for the purpose of this column I will use four common risk categories for animated productions : production risk, sales risk, legal risk, and audience risk. Each category, explained in more detail below, has component risks (odds) and techniques for countering these risks (ways to load the dice). In a perfect world, each risk is analyzed, evaluated, and adjusted. In a practical world, however, the production company identifies the risks that they can modify, changes the risks they have the resources to change, and then crosses its collective fingers.
Production risks involve producing a quality product, on time, and under budget. Employees are a big part of this risk. Do they have the talent? Will they have the professionalism to use their talent efficiently and effectively? One can easily picture that low quality talent will produce low quality product, but even high quality talent can make mistakes, or be too rushed to effectively produce quality work. In order to counter employee production risks, producers will hire employees not only for their talent, but for their reputation and their marketability. For example, while Sonoda Kenichi is unquestionably talented, he does not get as much work as others because some producers supposedly question his professionalism. Meanwhile, Otomo's mere association with a project will ensure that his portion will be technically sound, that the bank will be more willing to finance the project, and that the audience will be more willing to sample the product (see audience risk below).
Sometimes delays alone can cost a fortune and create a production risk. This is most obviously seen in the live action Hollywood pictures such as WATERWORLD or TITANIC, where the interest payments on the loans used to bankroll the feature became a significant percentage of the overall budget. Fortunately, there are not usually any rain delays in filming animated products, but there are plenty of places for the production to have problems. GIANT ROBOT and GUNDAM: 08th MS TEAM were both delayed in the middle of the series by deaths either in, or close to, the production crew, which delayed the projects for more than six months. This not only causes production delays, but also creates risks for the quality of the product, the enthusiasm of the audience, and the ability of the sales force to move the product effectively.
Production companies address these risks by hiring strong, professional talent, and by budgeting their resources as best as they can. They also try to reduce costs where ever possible (reduced budget = increased profit potential), and/or make the quality of the product excel.
The sales risks involve all of the various aspects necessary to place this product in front of the consumer. Will the retailer be convinced that their customer desires the product? Will the advertising be prominent enough to attract anyone's attention? Is there enough space on the shelves, or in the theaters, for the project to even make it to the public? To address these risks, the production studio usually throws a lot of money at consumers in the form of advertising, and at retailers in the form of sales sheets and screeners. They then go in and tell the retailers and distributors how their product is going to generate so much revenue that the retailer should clear an entire shelf just for their product. (If they are convincing, they might actually get a slot or two...)
In many ways, the sales risk can be addressed by focusing on the audience risk (see below) and making sure people want to see the film, or through the production risk and making sure the product is of superior quality. While these efforts will reduce the sales risk, it will by no means eliminate the sales risk, which should still be considered separately to ensure that the product will actually be available to consumers.
The magnitude of the legal risk depends heavily upon the nature of the product. Adult product, naturally, has high associated risks, especially in specific geographical regions, or with products addressing especially sensitive topics. Adaptations and derivative products also have legal risks, since they are based upon other works, although the ramifications are greater for the derivative products. Even 100% original products often face legal battles as can be seen from the lawsuits regarding the true origination of the movie TWISTER (which was dismissed, but still was in court for nearly a year). These risks can be addressed by making potentially risky aspects of a project low key, by signing contracts, or by having an army of lawyers.
The last risk category pertains to whether or not the product will find an audience. In order to make money, any project must be purchased (videos, tickets, TV time, etc.), and in order to be purchased, the project must interest people enough for them to fork over their hard earned cash. While part of this issue is addressed through consumer advertising (see sales risks), no amount of advertising can force a person to become a patron (mob thugs do not usually count as advertising). In this sense, the gamble to find an audience is the ultimate risk, since this is where the money comes from to keep the company alive.